Assessing the Mitch Keller Extension
p/c: Patrick McDermott
After much speculation of a Mitch Keller extension, both sides were able to get a deal done on Thursday. ESPN’s Jeff Passan was first to report that the Pittsburgh Pirates have agreed to sign Keller to a five-year extension. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported that the deal is worth $77 million.
The $77 million is now a new franchise record, for a Pirates pitcher, as it’s nearly double of Francisco Liriano’s guaranteed $39 million. It marks the first time a Pirates starter has been signed to an extension since Charlie Morton in December of 2013.
To suggest that the beginning of Mitch Keller’s big league career was rocky would be quite an understatement, as he posted an ERA of 6.03 from 2019-21.
Following a temporary move to the bullpen in early 2022, Keller returned to the rotation, and the light bulb had clicked. With the incorporation of a new cutter and sweeper, he began to pitch with a ton more confidence.
Keller finally put the puzzle pieces together last season, as he became a first time All-Star. While the 4.21 ERA doesn’t seem great, he did register a better FIP of 3.80, in a career-high 32 starts. Keller also made team history by recording the most strikeouts in a season by a Pirates right-handed pitcher with 210 - surpassing AJ Burnett’s 2013 mark.
Assessment: Keller’s new contract with the Pirates is a real bargain, when you consider that the yearly average money of the deal is the going rate for #3 type starters, and Keller has shown he can perform at a better level than that.
The deal for Keller would cover his final two years of arbitration and three years of free agency. Given the length of the deal, the obvious hope for Pirates’ management is that Keller and last year’s #1 pick Paul Skenes can form a very formidable 1-2 combination atop the rotation for years to come.
For Keller and the Pirates, it’s a solid deal for each side. Pittsburgh locks up a starter in his prime at age 28, and for a team-friendly figure. Meanwhile, Keller had stated that he wanted to remain a Pirate, and probably feels like owes it to an organization that never gave up on his abilities.