What Could an Oneil Cruz Extension Look Like?
p/c: Charles LeClaire - USA Today Sports
Over the past couple years, the Pittsburgh Pirates have tried to identify pieces, to build around moving forward.
The first instance was Ke’Bryan Hayes, who signed an eight-year extension for $70 million, on Opening Day 2022.
Early on in ‘23, the Bucs and Bryan Reynolds agreed to an eight-year deal worth $106 million, which marked the first time in club history that a player signed a contract of least $100 million.
And it was last offseason that Mitch Keller became the biggest money signed pitcher ever by the Pirates, as he inked a five-year deal for a total of $77 million.
Lots of people have speculated about the Pirates locking up Oneil Cruz at some point.
After missing a large majority of the ‘23 season recovering from a torn fibula, Cruz returned to full health this past season. These were the hitting metrics from the 25-year-old slugger.
To say Cruz was a Statcast darling with the bat in 2024 would be a massive understatement.
In terms of average exit velocity, Cruz was among the best in baseball at 95.5 mph. As a matter of fact, he finished with the third highest exit velo behind only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani; each of whom won the MVP in their respective leagues. To give further perspective, Juan Soto, who’s expected to sign a record-breaking contract this offseason, had an exit velo less than Cruz at 94.2.
As you might expect, the high exit velo directly correlated with Cruz’s ability to smoke the baseball, as he delivered hard hits more than half the time at 54.9%.
As a whole offensively, Cruz was almost a four-win player, posting an oWAR of 3.8, along with a 113 OPS+, in 599 plate appearances. He was also an effective basestealer, swiping 22 bases in 23 attempts, for an outstanding, 95.7% success rate.
In late August, Pirates’ management made the unexpected decision to move Cruz off shortstop and into center field. With -9 Defensive Runs Saved at short, perhaps his 6’7 frame would cause too many moving parts, and having him play center field would possibly maximize his missile of a throwing arm even more.
So hypothetically speaking, what could an extension for Cruz turn out to be?
Cruz is now in the prime of his career at 26. There’s still the potential of a 40/40 type performer, or at least, 30/30. Either type of production would instantly make him a Top 5 center fielder offensively. And if Cruz is able to play good enough defense in center, it’s the profile of a bonafide, All-Star, perhaps even a borderline MVP type.
Realistically, an extension offer to Cruz of seven years at $112 million seems like more than a fair offer from the Pirates’ end, as it would obviously surpass Reynolds’ guaranteed money figure. Should a deal of that length come to fruition this winter, or during spring training, it would go into effect in 2025, while covering all three arbitration years, and three years of free agency. Like many big contracts in MLB, perhaps the Pirates could guarantee most of Cruz’s money on the backend.