Examining Mitch Keller’s Complicated Trade Value In the Offseason
p/c: Phillip G. Pavely
Mitch Keller concluded his 2025 season on Friday night. Facing the Atlanta Braves, he lasted just 3.2 innings, allowing one run, while walking a season-high five.
In 32 starts, Keller finishes the year with a 4.19 ERA. It marks his third consecutive season of at least 30 starts.
Keller entered July as one of the more intriguing trade candidates among starting pitchers.
Despite being intra divisional, the Chicago Cubs were reportedly expressing interest in the Pirates veteran right-hander. Rumors had circulated of Pittsburgh wanting Cubs top prospect, Owen Caissie, to headline the deal.
Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported that the Baltimore Orioles had the most interest in Keller, and the two sides discussed a trade leading into the final days of the deadline.
As it turned out, Keller stayed put. As mentioned, he has three consecutive seasons of 30 or more starts. However, this is also three straight years, in which he has struggled in the second half.
Here are the first half and second half comparisons for Keller over the last the seasons.
2023 first half: 3.31 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
2023 second half: 5.59 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
2024 first half: 3.08 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
2024 second half: 5.46 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
2025 first half: 4.33 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
2025 second half: 4.56 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Keller still has three years remaining on his current deal at around $55.7 million. He’ll be owed $16.9 million in 2026.
Based on the escalating figures, it would seem like a strong possibility that Pittsburgh would move Keller this offseason.
The Pirates needing to add offense will be the worst kept secret of the entire upcoming MLB offseason. So would a Keller trade help them achieve that?
A significant package, for the Bucs to obtain with Keller, feels like a slippery slope. How many contenders are going to give up a haul, at that price, to acquire a pitcher who is nothing more than above average?
When the Pirates sold at the deadline, they dumped several contracts, including the Ke’Bryan Hayes extension, which although was team-friendly, does free up cash, in order to address a much more pressing need.
Some believe Pittsburgh should look to make Keller expendable anyway, for the amount of rotation depth on the big club behind Paul Skenes, with Bubba Chandler, Johan Oviedo, Braxton Ashcraft, Mike Burrows, and Hunter Barco.
This offseason will be a “see it to believe it”, as to what level the Pirates’ organization is willing to go to spend on quality hitters, given the saved cash they could look to effectively allocate. Should the team decide to dump Keller’s money, then perhaps they settle on a decent trade return, if it means the ability to spend more on high-profile type bats for the 2026 lineup.