Pirates Could Face Interesting Offseason Decision with David Bednar
Pittsburgh guy - check - 2-time All-Star closer - check - A pierogi & pot roast filled hot dog in correlation to the Renegade nickname - check.
All things are good in the world with David Bednar, right? Well….
The 29-year-old Pittsburgh Pirates closer entered 2024 missing most of spring training, because of a lat injury.
For Bednar, the lack of a true spring showed its effects, as he blew three save chances, within his first five appearances.
Following a blown save loss against the Detroit Tigers on April 9th, first baseman Rowdy Tellez came to Bednar’s defense in the postgame - expressing how David is a Pittsburgh guy and that “We don’t do that here.”
Although Tellez’s intentions were good, it was met with criticism, as most felt Bednar needed to be the one responsible, for his poor pitching to start the season.
From May to July, Bednar seemed to be turning things around, posting a 2.41 ERA, in 27 games.
However, the month of August has been brutal, to say the least for Bednar, with an ERA of 8.00. In that stretch, he’s had back-to-back blown saves against the San Diego Padres on August 7th & 8th, and was on the receiving end of a walkoff loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 11th.
In total, Bednar has made 47 appearances, registering a 5.68 ERA, along with a 4.56 FIP. So how does one exactly figure out Bednar’s struggles?
Velocity hasn’t been the issue for Bednar. In fact, he’s got a better average fastball velo (97.2) than last season (96.6). Same with the splitter (92.1) compared to 91.6 in 2023. The problem though is the lack of swing & miss with his fastball and curveball.
Fastball
2023: 30.3% whiff rate
2024: 23.5% whiff rate
Curveball
2023: 40.5% whiff rate
2024: 26.3% whiff rate
The biggest thing has been opposing batters squaring up Bednar’s fastball much more soundly this year, with teams slugging .529 off his four-seamer, as compared to only a .315 figure last season.
Unless Bednar can finish 2024 with a good September, then the Pirates would be faced with an interesting decision this coming offseason.
Bednar will have two more years of control, after this season. He is currently making $4.1 million.
Many have speculated about a possible Bednar trade this winter. Personally, I would be surprised it happens. First off, Bednar has been a multiple time All-Star, and is a year removed from his best campaign, in which he posted a 222 ERA+, as well as an NL leading 39 saves. Secondly, it wouldn’t make sense to trade Bednar at his lowest value, especially when there isn’t a rush to move him, given the amount of control Pittsburgh has with him.
Bednar’s projected arbitration figure in the offseason could be in a range of $4.5 to $5 million, so if he’s able to bounce back in 2025, the salary still becomes a bargain.
Even if the Pirates give their full endorsement to Bednar being a key part of the bullpen next season, it shouldn’t guarantee the closer’s job. I feel like it’s something Bednar would need to earn back.