Examining Andrew McCutchen’s Hall of Fame Case
On Wednesday afternoon, the Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Miami Marlins by a final of 5-2. The most notable scoring for the Bucs came on an Andrew McCutchen three-run blast, which helped him surpass Roberto Clemente for sole possession of third on the Pirates’ all-time home run list.
Ironically, it was two years ago to the day that McCutchen recorded the 2,000th hit of his Major League career.
When all is said and done, McCutchen will no doubt be an honorary member of the Pirates’ Hall of Fame, and will most likely have his uniform number 22 retired by the franchise. But is McCutchen Cooperstown worthy? Let’s examine his case.
From 2011-2015, McCutchen was undoubtedly among the best players in MLB. During each of those five seasons, he was voted into the Midsummer Classic. He would capture four Silver Slugger awards, and become the first Pirates player since Barry Bonds in 1992, to win the National League MVP, which he did in 2013.
In terms of McCutchen’s offensive value, he was extraordinary once he entered his prime; leading the NL in oWAR (7.5 in 2012, 7.5 in 2013 and 7.7 in 2014).
McCutchen’s career oWAR has held up extremely well, as his 58.0 mark is Top 15 among center fielders all-time at 14.
For as great as the offensive profile is, in regards to McCutchen, the defensive metrics tell another story. His -10.1 dWAR knock down his career WAR at 49.6, which is 32nd all-time. In addition, McCutchen’s career Defensive Runs Saves figure is brutal at -62.
There are currently 19 center fielders who are in the Hall of Fame. Going by JAWS (Jay Jaffe’s WAR Score), a system that factors in a player’s career WAR, along with their seven-year peak, McCutchen is 27th among all-time center fielders.
In conclusion, I would have to concur with JAWS that McCutchen falls short of being a Hall of Famer. While he has the same exact oWAR as Kenny Lofton, the overall WAR is much higher for Lofton, because of him being a substantially, better defensive center fielder. Bernie Williams, who isn’t in the Hall of Fame either, had the same career WAR as McCutchen, however, Williams not only had the higher oWAR, but you obviously have to point out his decorated postseason numbers.
If McCutchen had played at an MVP, or even an All-Star level another 3-4 years, following 2015, and/or played league average defense, for most of his career, then we’re probably talking definite enshrinement into Cooperstown.
Realistically, it seems unlikely McCutchen would get voted in, while he’s on the ballot, so perhaps there’s a chance he gets elected by a committee - similar to Dave Parker last offseason.