The Case for Paul Skenes Winning NL Rookie of the Year
p/c: Gene J. Puskar
After getting a taste of professional ball late in 2023, Paul Skenes entered spring training 2024, with tremendous buzz, both locally and nationally.
While most obviously wanted to see the former #1 pick make the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Opening Day roster, the decision was made to have him begin the year pitching for AAA Indianapolis.
Simply put, Skenes made AAA competition look like little league, despite being the most hyped up pitching prospect in all of baseball, and having all seven of his starts as the MiLB.TV Free Game. In those seven outings, Skenes posted a microscopic, 0.99 ERA, while striking out 45 batters in 27.1 innings (14.8 K/9), and allowing just eight free passes (2.6 BB/9).
On May 11th, the time had come, for Skenes to make his Major League debut with the Pirates. Although his debut at PNC Park wasn’t great, going four innings and giving up three earned runs to the Chicago Cubs, he followed that up with his first road start, and was stellar, tossing six no-hit frames and punching out 11 versus the Cubs at Wrigley Field.
Skenes’ other masterpiece came on July 11th, when he went seven innings of no-hit ball against the Milwaukee Brewers, where he once again struck out 11.
The 22-year-old Skenes absolutely dazzled with the Pirates. He made 23 starts, where he registered a 1.96 ERA - the lowest by a Pirates rookie starting pitcher - with a minimum of 20 starts - in the modern era (since 1901).
Another National League rookie having a strong season is San Diego Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill. In 593 plate appearances with the Friars, Merrill slashed .292/.326/.500, along with 24 home runs, and 90 runs batted in.
So who should take home the hardware for NL Rookie of the Year between Skenes and Merrill?
When it comes to Wins Above Replacement, FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference seem to differ on each player. FanGraphs has Skenes at a 4.3 WAR and Merrill with a 5.3 WAR. However, Baseball-Reference is more favorable with Skenes at 5.9, as compared to Merrill at 4.4.
For as awesome of a 2024 as Merrill has had, and a big reason why the Padres have made a postseason run, Skenes himself had a pitching season for the ages.
To provide further perspective, the last pitcher to win NL Rookie of the Year was Jacob deGrom in 2014. deGrom made 22 starts and recorded a 128 ERA+. Skenes, meanwhile, posted an ERA+ of 214, in about the same sample size.
Merrill is emerging as a young, rising star outfielder, who will most likely be a franchise cornerstone player in San Diego, and in any other year, would be a clear favorite, as NL Rookie of the Year, but the type of season Skenes had on the mound was so extraordinary that the closest it resembles - albeit in a smaller sample - is Dwight Gooden’s 1984 campaign - in terms of statistical value.