How Soon Could the Penguins Contend Under Dan Muse?

p/c: Giuseppe LoPiccolo - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
On April 28th, the Pittsburgh sports scene and general hockey landscape was abuzz, as it was announced that the Penguins and Mike Sullivan had mutually agreed to part ways.
Following 10 seasons, which included a pair of Stanley Cups, Sullivan’s style of coaching seemed to get stale after a while, with the team not winning a playoff series since 2018, as well as missing the playoffs in each of the last three seasons.
Although there was no official reason, it appeared that Sullivan and Penguins’ president of hockey operations, Kyle Dubas, weren’t getting on the same page - regarding the direction of the team.
On June 4th, Dubas hired Dan Muse as the 23rd head coach in franchise history. Perhaps more noteworthy is Muse possibly being the doppelgänger of Pittsburgh Pirates broadcaster Joe Block.
The soon-to-be 43-year-old Muse has an extensive developmental background, including the USA Hockey National Team Development Program, where he helped trained the likes of Pittsburgh native and Utah Mammoth center Logan Cooley, and Penguins top prospect Rutger McGroarty.
Muse’s coaching staff is now fully intact, with Todd Nelson, who was thought to be a strong candidate for the Penguins head coaching gig, former NHL forward Rich Clune, Mike Stothers, the return of goalie coach Andy Chiodo, and two-time Stanley Cup winner and Pens fan favorite Nick Bonino. For Bonino specifically, he mentioned to members of the Penguins’ media that he will be coaching the younger centers, in addition to helping out on the penalty kill.
When it comes to free agent additions, it’s not a surprise that Dubas has been playing it conservatively, despite the team’s breathing room in cap space. Muse’s first seasonin Pittsburgh is expected to be a transition.
To what degree of transition remains to be seen, as a lot will hinge on what type of offers Dubas receives this offseason for Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell. Internally, there’s probably been discussion of wanting to get out from under Erik Karlsson’s large contract.
The biggest key for the Penguins under Dan Muse will be giving young players a legitimate opportunity, to claim roles on the roster. Top prospects Ville Koivunen and Rutger McGroarty are the two noteworthy forwards - the latter likely getting a chance to play along with Sidney Crosby on the top line. Guys like Owen Pickering and Harrison Brunicke will be top-tier defensive prospects looking to make an impact on Pittsburgh’s blue line.
In all likelihood, it should take the Penguins about four years to truly compete again. The first couple seasons for Muse will be a transition period. By the third season, the team could start to see their young core of talent starting to come together as a cohesive unit. Going into Year 4 should be when Dubas is able to spend plenty on the free agent market, and surround the players entering their primes, with quality, veteran compliments. At that point, it should be where the Pens become legit players again in the Eastern Conference, as opposed to a team that’s just “good enough”, and barely sneaks into the playoffs - only to get bounced in the first round.